Blog Post 3.6 - Polling in Nevada
1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll?
Part of the difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population.
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
20.2%-29.8%
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
If Biden gets closer to 22.8% and Bernie gets closer to 20.0%, then is still fits the poll data.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
In both previous 2020 Nevada polls, the state seemed to be torn between Biden and Sanders. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll from early January showed Biden in the lead with 19 percent support, Sanders with 18 percent, and their nearest competitor — Warren — 8 percentage points behind. A Fox News poll taken at the beginning of January showed Biden coming in with 23 percent support and Sanders at 17 percent, with Warren and Steyer 5 percentage points behind the senator from Vermont.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
After the 2004 election, the state switched from holding primaries to caucuses, and was pushed much earlier on the primary calendar as part of an effort to make the primary system more inclusive of the Democratic Party’s demographic make-up. (Nevada’s population is almost a third Latino.)
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
FiveThirtyEight’s Clare Malone has reported that part of the difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
The Iowa caucuses are a well-established tradition dating back to the 1970s, but Nevada’s caucuses are relatively new. The relative newness of the caucuses means that pollsters have not had time to build the sort of infrastructure and state expertise that was developed over decades in Iowa.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
The state has a newly instituted four-day early voting period that attempts to model caucusing by using a system modeled on ranked-choice voting.
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
The state has a “fluctuating population,” in large part due to its heavy reliance on the tourism and casino industries. Nevada’s population can be transient, and can wax and wane seasonally.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
Part of the difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population.
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
20.2%-29.8%
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
If Biden gets closer to 22.8% and Bernie gets closer to 20.0%, then is still fits the poll data.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
In both previous 2020 Nevada polls, the state seemed to be torn between Biden and Sanders. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll from early January showed Biden in the lead with 19 percent support, Sanders with 18 percent, and their nearest competitor — Warren — 8 percentage points behind. A Fox News poll taken at the beginning of January showed Biden coming in with 23 percent support and Sanders at 17 percent, with Warren and Steyer 5 percentage points behind the senator from Vermont.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
After the 2004 election, the state switched from holding primaries to caucuses, and was pushed much earlier on the primary calendar as part of an effort to make the primary system more inclusive of the Democratic Party’s demographic make-up. (Nevada’s population is almost a third Latino.)
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
FiveThirtyEight’s Clare Malone has reported that part of the difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
The Iowa caucuses are a well-established tradition dating back to the 1970s, but Nevada’s caucuses are relatively new. The relative newness of the caucuses means that pollsters have not had time to build the sort of infrastructure and state expertise that was developed over decades in Iowa.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
The state has a newly instituted four-day early voting period that attempts to model caucusing by using a system modeled on ranked-choice voting.
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
The state has a “fluctuating population,” in large part due to its heavy reliance on the tourism and casino industries. Nevada’s population can be transient, and can wax and wane seasonally.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
The need for pollsters to have staff conducting field work over a 24-hour period rather than in evenings like in other states, as well as the costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models, means polling in Nevada is substantially more expensive to produce than in other states.
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