Lydia Williams's Government Blog

1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll? Part of the difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population. 2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support? 20.2%-29.8% 3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data. If Biden gets closer to 22.8% and Bernie gets closer to 20.0%, then is still fits the poll data.  4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year? In both previous 2020 Nevada polls, the state seemed to be torn between Biden and Sanders.  A Suffolk University/USA Today poll  from early January showed Biden in the lead with 19 percent support, Sanders with 18 percent, and their nearest competitor — Warre...

1.  What was Lt Col. Alexander Vindman's job in the bureaucracy? Lt Col. Alexander Vindman w as  a top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council.  2. What did Vindman testify during the impeachment investigation? He testified that he found the call inappropriate and that he saw it as “improper for the president of the United States to demand a foreign government  investigate a U.S. citizen and political opponent .” 3. What did the White House do to Vindman and his brother? Now Vindman  has been removed  from his post in the White House as of this Friday,  according to his lawyer . His twin brother, a lawyer for the National Security Council, was  also reassigned. 4. How is the White House justifying this action? The White House is framing this not as payback against Vindman but as a broader shrinking of the NSC staff. 5. Why does the author argue that this creates a danger for other civil servants? The danger here, of course, i...

1.What's the difference between Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the primary calendar? Phase one is the four early states in February, which have a paltry number of delegates but an extraordinary impact on the race’s overall narrative. Phase two is the briefest but the most consequential: It spans March 1 to 17, in which more than half of all 3,979 pledged delegates will be locked down. 2. Which four states get to vote first, separated roughly into one each week? Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina vote first. 3. There are few delegates available in these four states, why are the primaries so important? The primaries are important because without them it is impossible for anyone to build up a significant lead in this phase, particularly because Democrats allot their delegates proportionally. 4. How many delegates are available in Phase 2? During phase 2,  more than 60 percent of pledged delegates at stake in the entire contest will be available.  5. Which regions ar...

1. The seven most recent polls they looked at measured opinion about last weekend (Those covering Jan 19 in the polling dates).  How many showed more support for removing Trump than opposition for removing Trump?  In all seven of the most recent polls, there was more support shown for removing Trump the opposition for removing him. 2. Which of these 7 polls found the most support for removing Trump? Which found the most opposition to removing Trump? The January 17-20 FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll showed showed the most support for removing Trump. The January 16-20 Monmouth and January 19-21 The Economist/YouGov poll showed the most opposition for removing Trump. 3. In FiveThirtyEight's polling average, what percentage of Democrats support removing Trump from office? What percentage of Republicans support removing Trump from office? 83.9% of Democrats supported removing Trump and 8.4% of Republicans supported removing Trump from office.  4. What differenc...

1. What issue is at the center of both the  Trinity Lutheran  and  Espinoza  cases? Both  Trinity Lutheran  and  Espinoza  involve state constitutional provisions that prohibited those states from spending money to “aid” churches and other religious institutions. 2. How does Justice Kagan argue that banning ALL funding to religious institutions would be ridiculous? As Justice Elena Kagan noted during oral arguments in  Trinity Lutheran , the Missouri constitutional provision at issue in that case might be read to prohibit the state from providing “police protection or fire protection” to churches. That is, if a church caught ablaze, the fire department would be required to let it burn. 3. What choice do the plaintiffs argue that these bans force on students? Lawyers for the plaintiffs in  Espinoza  — parents who wish to keep their children in a private, Christian school —   push a radical theory of the government’s obliga...

1. Why was General Soleimani an important target for the airstrike? General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region. He was a big figure in Iran. 2. How did the Department of Defense (the Pentagon) justify this attack? The Pentagon said that General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more. 3. How have Iran's leaders responded to the US attack? They have vowed revenge. 4. How has President Trump responded to Iran's promises of "revenge"? He has threatened back and been unapologetic. 5. Why have some said that Trump's response would be considered a war crime? Because targeting cultural sites is a war crime. 6. What impact has this attack on Iran's leadership had on normal Iranian people? They are mourning and trying to change the state of leadership in Iran. ...