Lydia Williams's Government Blog

1.  What was Mayor Pete's background before running for president? He was  The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor. 2. What was the high point of Mayor Pete's campaign for president? The high point of his campaign was when he managed to win Iowa and come in for a strong second place in New Hampshire before his ultimate withdrawal. 3. What progressive positions did he adopt in the early stages of this campaign? He appealed to more progressive Democrats by endorsing institutional reforms like abolishing the Electoral College, creating an  automatic voter registration  system, and giving statehood to Puerto Rico and Washington, DC.  4. When Buttigieg became more moderate, what two groups of voters did he struggle with? He struggled with enemies the ideological left and among black voters of all ideological stripes, among whom he could never gain any traction. 5. Why did his campaign struggle after Iowa and New Hampshire? He managed to make up the ...

1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll? Part of the difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population. 2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support? 20.2%-29.8% 3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data. If Biden gets closer to 22.8% and Bernie gets closer to 20.0%, then is still fits the poll data.  4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year? In both previous 2020 Nevada polls, the state seemed to be torn between Biden and Sanders.  A Suffolk University/USA Today poll  from early January showed Biden in the lead with 19 percent support, Sanders with 18 percent, and their nearest competitor — Warre...

1.  What was Lt Col. Alexander Vindman's job in the bureaucracy? Lt Col. Alexander Vindman w as  a top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council.  2. What did Vindman testify during the impeachment investigation? He testified that he found the call inappropriate and that he saw it as “improper for the president of the United States to demand a foreign government  investigate a U.S. citizen and political opponent .” 3. What did the White House do to Vindman and his brother? Now Vindman  has been removed  from his post in the White House as of this Friday,  according to his lawyer . His twin brother, a lawyer for the National Security Council, was  also reassigned. 4. How is the White House justifying this action? The White House is framing this not as payback against Vindman but as a broader shrinking of the NSC staff. 5. Why does the author argue that this creates a danger for other civil servants? The danger here, of course, i...

1.What's the difference between Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the primary calendar? Phase one is the four early states in February, which have a paltry number of delegates but an extraordinary impact on the race’s overall narrative. Phase two is the briefest but the most consequential: It spans March 1 to 17, in which more than half of all 3,979 pledged delegates will be locked down. 2. Which four states get to vote first, separated roughly into one each week? Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina vote first. 3. There are few delegates available in these four states, why are the primaries so important? The primaries are important because without them it is impossible for anyone to build up a significant lead in this phase, particularly because Democrats allot their delegates proportionally. 4. How many delegates are available in Phase 2? During phase 2,  more than 60 percent of pledged delegates at stake in the entire contest will be available.  5. Which regions ar...

1. The seven most recent polls they looked at measured opinion about last weekend (Those covering Jan 19 in the polling dates).  How many showed more support for removing Trump than opposition for removing Trump?  In all seven of the most recent polls, there was more support shown for removing Trump the opposition for removing him. 2. Which of these 7 polls found the most support for removing Trump? Which found the most opposition to removing Trump? The January 17-20 FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll showed showed the most support for removing Trump. The January 16-20 Monmouth and January 19-21 The Economist/YouGov poll showed the most opposition for removing Trump. 3. In FiveThirtyEight's polling average, what percentage of Democrats support removing Trump from office? What percentage of Republicans support removing Trump from office? 83.9% of Democrats supported removing Trump and 8.4% of Republicans supported removing Trump from office.  4. What differenc...

1. What issue is at the center of both the  Trinity Lutheran  and  Espinoza  cases? Both  Trinity Lutheran  and  Espinoza  involve state constitutional provisions that prohibited those states from spending money to “aid” churches and other religious institutions. 2. How does Justice Kagan argue that banning ALL funding to religious institutions would be ridiculous? As Justice Elena Kagan noted during oral arguments in  Trinity Lutheran , the Missouri constitutional provision at issue in that case might be read to prohibit the state from providing “police protection or fire protection” to churches. That is, if a church caught ablaze, the fire department would be required to let it burn. 3. What choice do the plaintiffs argue that these bans force on students? Lawyers for the plaintiffs in  Espinoza  — parents who wish to keep their children in a private, Christian school —   push a radical theory of the government’s obliga...

1. Why was General Soleimani an important target for the airstrike? General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region. He was a big figure in Iran. 2. How did the Department of Defense (the Pentagon) justify this attack? The Pentagon said that General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more. 3. How have Iran's leaders responded to the US attack? They have vowed revenge. 4. How has President Trump responded to Iran's promises of "revenge"? He has threatened back and been unapologetic. 5. Why have some said that Trump's response would be considered a war crime? Because targeting cultural sites is a war crime. 6. What impact has this attack on Iran's leadership had on normal Iranian people? They are mourning and trying to change the state of leadership in Iran. ...

1. In changing environmental policy, how much bureaucratic regulation has the Trump Administration reduced? They have reduced most of the bureaucratic regulation. 2. How has the Trump Administration changed America's approach to resource extraction? Employment in coal mining is higher and there is more oil output now. 3. What changes has the Trump Administration made to the Medicaid program? He allowed states to impose taxes on their Medicare programs. 4. What has been the result of these changes? Nearly 20,000 people have lost jobs. 5. What policy changed has caused the biggest changes in the federal deficit? The Supplement Nutrition Assistance Program has caused the biggest changes in federal deficit. 6. How has the Securities and Exchange Commission changed its enforcement of regulations about the stock market? Has decreased enforcement of regulations by 40%. 7. What impact have Trump's policies had on the banking industry? Relaxed stress on banking by allowing...

1. How much has Trump spent advertising on Facebook about the impeachment process? Trump has spent about $1.6 million on Facebook posts addressing impeachment. 2. Which voters is he targeting his ads towards? He is trying to rile up his base.  His campaign is using Facebook ads as a way to reinforce the narrative cycle from the White House, Republican lawmakers, and conservative media that impeachment is a political plot against the president by Democrats.  3. What are the ads about? His ads, don’t deal with the substance of the allegations and instead push conspiracies. They are a way for the president’s reelection campaign to build voter lists, streamline in potential volunteers and donors, and keep public opinion from swinging too far out of Trump’s favor.  4. How much did political groups spend on advertising on Facebook in the 2018 elections? Political groups spent $284 million on advertising on Facebook in the 2018 elections. 5. What percentage of Trump'...

1. What changed about Virginia's government in last week's elections? The Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in Virginia. 2. What would the Equal Rights Amendment proposed in 1972 do? The ERA, an amendment that guarantees equal rights regardless of sex, passed Congress on a bipartisan basis in 1972 and requires 38 states to ratify it in order to become part of the Constitution. 3. How many states ratified the amendment when it was originally proposed?  What states have ratified it recently? 35 states ratified it quickly. However, i t took 40 years for a 36th state — Nevada — to ratify the ERA in 2017, and then Illinois became the 37th state in 2018.  4. According to the constitution, why is it necessary to have a 38th state ratify the amendment? It required 38 states so that it will be in the clear majority. 5. What stipulation for its ratification did Congress add to the proposal in the 1970s? The amendment gained momentum in the 1960s and ’70s,...

1. Why is the Liberty and Justice Celebration dinner important to candidates? The dinner is historically the largest gathering of voters in Iowa. It  marked the beginning of a final push to the caucuses at a moment when support for a number of candidates has seen major shifts. It also allowed for some candidates to solidify their momentum or gain more supporters. 2. What percentage of voters still consider themselves undecided?  What percentage of voters are currently certain of their choice in candidates? 29 percent of voters are considering themselves undecided on who to choose. And only about 20 percent of voters are currently certain of their choice in candidates. 3. Which candidates are seeing an increase in support? Which candidates are seeing a decrease in support? Buttigieg has seen a large increase in support in recent Iowa polling. Biden has seen a decrease in support. 4. What message does Pete Buttigieg use to try to stand out to voters? Buttigieg gave an add...